Berea, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

906
FXUS63 KLMK 250207
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1007 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Fog development is likely tonight and may lead to areas of dense
  fog.

* Episodic bouts of showers/storms are expected to continue through
  most of this week. Localized excessive rainfall may result in
  flooding in some areas.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1007 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

Across the region this evening, muggy conditions continue with
temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s and small dewpoint
depressions generally 5 degrees or less noted in latest obs. Most
low-level clouds and showers have dissipated, though a few areas of
light to moderate showers continue across southern IN and south
central KY. Most of the showers should fall apart within the next
few hours, with lingering isolated showers possible through the
night along and south of the WK/BG Parkways.

The main impact in the near term is the potential development of
fog. HREF probabilities of less than 1/2 mile visibilities are
greater than 60% in the typically foggy spots between midnight
tonight and sunrise tomorrow, with the greatest concentration of
high fog probabilities located in Kentucky. Already starting to see
a few sites just outside of the CWA with lowering visibilities, so
we`ll continue the previous forecast`s mention of patchy/areas of
fog across much of the area. Not quite confident enough yet with a
few lingering low clouds/showers if we`ll see dense fog, so no
headlines planned at this time.

Finally, we have dropped the remaining counties from the Flood Watch
now that we`ve had several hours of dry conditions to help water
recede.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 335 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

Partial clearing over the eastern portion of the CWA has allowed for
increased heating. A surge of moisture has advected dew points into
the upper 60s and low 70s over the region. SBCAPE has increased to
1500-1700J/kg over the eastern half of the CWA. Due to this, we have
seen updrafts form. These showers have about 30kts of effective
shear, which is allowing for weak rotation. Will continue to monitor
these, but don`t think severe weather is likely today. Funnels may
be possible, given low LCLs and weak rotation. Additionally, a very
moist airmass and slow moving and training showers will allow for
increased flooding concerns. HREF LPMMs have outline areas north of
the Bluegrass Parkway with 2-3 inches of rainfall. For this reason,
a Flood Watch has been issued for these areas until 3Z.

Later on this evening, precip will push off to the east and the
approaching cold front will stall over the region. Light winds and
recent precip will allow for fog development. Some areas may see
dense fog. Will continue to monitor this trend, but a SPS or a Dense
Fog Advisory may be needed.

On Monday, the cold front will remain over the region and southerly
flow against the front will allow for scattered to numerous showers
and a few storms. This will mostly be along and south of the
Cumberland Parkway.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 335 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

===== Monday Night - Wednesday =====

Atlantic surface high pressure and ridging aloft will keep southerly
flow into the region and warming temperatures through mid week.
Daily chances for showers and storms will persist. Especially in
areas experiencing extreme drought conditions, this rain will be
beneficial. Looking to see weak CAPE and shear, which will just lead
to a general thunder rather than a severe storm threat. Looking to
see 0.5-1.5 inches of rain through Wednesday.

===== Thursday into the Weekend =====

Towards the end of the week, a closed low over Canada will shift
southward and bring a trough through the Ohio Valley. This will
bring a cold front south into the region. Shower and storm chances
are expected to continue Friday and into the weekend. Once the cold
front pushes through the region, temperatures will return to the mid-
upper 70s and conditions will dry out.


==== Overall ====

Flooding continues to remain the concern headed into this week.
PWATs will continue to be in the 1.7-1.9 inch range, indicating a
very moist airmass. HREF and LREF guidance shows 1-3 inches of rain
over this next week, and a 60% chance of exceeding 3 inches in the
southeastern portions of the CWA. WPC shows Marginal risks over the
region each day, which aligns with our thinking.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 750 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

Scattered showers will linger near all TAF sites over the next 1-2
hours before coverage decreases with the loss of daytime heating. A
weak cold front will be slowly pushing through the region tonight,
with light N/NE winds expected through much of the current forecast
period. Given the rainfall which we`ve received over the past few
days and the lack of sufficient wind and drier air behind the front,
think the setup looks favorable for fog development tonight across
the area. The strongest signal for IFR or lower VIS is at LEX and
RGA tonight, but the signal at all sites is strong enough to carry
prevailing MVFR VIS. After sunrise Monday, would expect fog to mix
up into an MVFR stratocu layer before VFR conditions are favored to
return in the late morning and early afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CSG
SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...CSG